Three major Canadian banks conveyed optimistic views about the economy on Thursday, in stark contrast to the concerns expressed by numerous small businesses amidst the escalating trade tensions with the United States.
Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank, and CIBC released their financial results before the opening of the Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday. Combined, these banking giants hold assets totaling up to $6 trillion on their balance sheets. With extensive portfolios catering to consumers and businesses, and networks spanning Canada and the U.S., these institutions have a unique perspective to assess the impact of tariffs.
RBC CEO Dave McKay stated during the bank’s quarterly conference call that the Canadian economy has shown resilience, with improvements in employment and GDP in Q2 providing a cautiously optimistic outlook for continued expansion. He noted that despite ongoing trade uncertainties with the U.S., the average effective tariff rate remains low at approximately six percent, with the majority of exports still duty-free.
TD Bank CEO Raymond Chun mentioned an emerging “super cycle” for investment in Canada, driven by government spending in infrastructure and national defense. TD Economics highlighted over $1 trillion in approved projects by Ottawa and the provinces through 2035 and beyond, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in Canada.
CIBC CEO Harry Culham expressed “measured confidence” for the latter part of 2026, emphasizing that the trade environment is evolving and closely monitoring Canada’s labor market for any signs of weakness. A recent study revealed that over 100,000 Canadian jobs could be at risk if the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) were to be eliminated.
BMO Capital Markets predicted a slight decline in Canadian growth due to the latest round of U.S. tariffs, primarily impacting business confidence and investment. Despite uncertainties, Canada’s big banks are trading near record highs on the Toronto Stock Exchange, indicating investor confidence in the sector’s resilience and stability.
