In the previous federal election, Quebec experienced a shift as the focus moved from defending the province’s interests to protecting Canada against threats from the US, particularly from Donald Trump’s tariff policies. The Liberals, under Mark Carney, capitalized on this sentiment, achieving their best results in Quebec in decades and sidelining the Bloc Québécois.
With the provincial election starting today, there is speculation about the potential influence of the US president once again. The recently imposed tariffs have taken center stage, forcing party leaders to demonstrate their ability to shield Quebec from the economic repercussions.
Economic stability has become a crucial issue for voters, overshadowing debates on Quebec identity, secularism, and language. The Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), facing challenges after two terms in power and amid a dissatisfied electorate, stands to benefit if voters prioritize economic concerns.
Quebec’s heavy reliance on automotive, metals, and manufacturing exports makes it vulnerable to the impact of the new tariffs, according to a report by Oxford Economics. The Parti Québécois (PQ), led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, is currently leading in opinion polls but faces competition from the CAQ and the Liberals, whose position has been strengthening.
Comparisons have been drawn between CAQ Leader Christine Fréchette and Mark Carney, with Fréchette unveiling financial aid programs aimed at sectors most affected by the tariffs. However, the CAQ’s progress under Fréchette has not mirrored Carney’s immediate popularity boost for the Liberals.
As the election campaign progresses, opponents are challenging the notion that Fréchette is best equipped to navigate the current challenges. Alternative proposals include a $1 billion annual “Trump provision” from Québec Solidaire and significant spending cuts and tax relief promised by Éric Duhaime’s Conservatives.
The leader who can reassure the electorate and demonstrate stability amid the uncertainties brought by Trump’s policies is likely to have an advantage, although the race remains unpredictable.
