A significant military presence is being mobilized on NATO’s eastern border as Russia and Belarus initiate a large-scale joint military maneuver. Following last week’s unprecedented drone incursion, the “Zapad” or “West” 2025 exercises are scheduled to occur in Russia and Belarus from Friday through Tuesday, September 16.
The drills are planned to encompass Russian land territory along with regions of the Baltic and Barents Seas, as stated by Moscow’s Defense Ministry. A portion of the exercises will involve troops strategizing the deployment of nuclear weapons and the newly nuclear-capable Oreshnik ballistic missiles that Russia intends to position in Belarus.
Amid escalating tensions between Russia and the West, US President Donald Trump expressed impatience with Russian President Vladimir Putin and hinted at imposing stringent sanctions related to the conflict in Ukraine. In Europe, concerns have risen over a recent intrusion of Russian drones into Polish airspace, raising fears of a broader conflict along the eastern border.
The incident marked the first instance where NATO allies faced a potential airspace threat since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Analysts suggest that the intrusion may have served as a test of NATO’s preparedness for potential aerial incursions ahead of the planned drills.
Security measures have been heightened in Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, with Poland ordering a complete closure of its border with Belarus during the exercises. Some European leaders are apprehensive that the military exercises could be a prelude to a European invasion, following the massive troop buildup in the 2021 “exercise” that preceded the Ukrainian invasion.
Barbed wire and barricades have been deployed at roads along the Polish border, as Prime Minister Donald Tusk dispatched 40,000 troops to the region, warning of impending critical days. Tusk cautioned that Poland is closer to open conflict than at any time since World War II, following the drone incident.
The previous Zapad-2021 maneuvers provided a pretext for Russia to deploy 200,000 troops to the Ukrainian border before the invasion. This time, Russian units are believed to be simulating an occupation of the Suwalki corridor, identified as a vulnerability for NATO, according to Tusk.
Downplaying concerns, a Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, emphasized that this year’s drills are planned exercises not directed against any specific entity. The Russian defense ministry communicated on Telegram that the drills aim to enhance the skills of commanders and staff, along with boosting cooperation and field training of regional and coalition troop groupings.
Despite assurances from the Russian government, Polish President Tusk criticized the aggressive nature of the Zapad maneuvers and announced the closure of Poland’s border. Interior Minister Marcin Kierwinski attributed the border closure to specific aggressive military exercises targeting Poland.
Although this year’s exercise is anticipated to be smaller than the 2021 maneuvers preceding the Ukrainian invasion, Minsk indicated that only 13,000 troops would be involved, potentially reducing that number by half later on. The drills are set to include Russia’s experimental nuclear-capable missile, Oreshnik, and nuclear strike training, as confirmed by Belarussian officials.
Poland and its allies intend to conduct counter-drills throughout September, reminiscent of Cold War practices, in response to the ongoing military activities in the region.