The El Niño weather pattern is expected to strengthen significantly until 2027 and might become the most powerful on record, heightening the potential for extreme weather conditions in the coming year, according to the World Meteorological Organization. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo stated during a press conference in Geneva that if the current trend continues, the intensity of El Niño could surpass anything observed since monitoring began, reaching unprecedented levels not seen in the past four decades.
The United Nations weather agency indicated a near certainty of El Niño persisting through February 2027, driven by abnormally warm temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This is the first time the WMO has expressed such a high level of confidence in its forecasts. A robust El Niño can significantly alter global rainfall and temperature patterns, leading to severe weather events such as typhoons.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the escalating nature of El Niño, stating that the scientific evidence is clear: the planet is entering uncharted territory with rising temperatures. El Niño is a cyclical warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific caused by weakened trade winds, occurring naturally every two to seven years and typically lasting up to 12 months, resulting in intense rainfall and droughts across Latin America.
The current El Niño event has already impacted agricultural commodities in tropical regions, triggering a severe food crisis across Central America’s Dry Corridor. The WMO expects El Niño to peak later this year, with its effects continuing into 2027 and leading to elevated global temperatures next year. Saulo affirmed that the WMO is enhancing preparedness and early warning initiatives to address the situation.
The organization is dedicated to collaborating closely with partners within the United Nations and the humanitarian sector to provide climate intelligence crucial for disaster management and climate-sensitive industries like agriculture, health, energy, and water resources.
